Published: November 4th, 2025
Bitcoin ended October in the red for the first time in six years, dampening one of the market's favourite myths: that “Uptober” reliably brings gains. The world's biggest cryptocurrency slipped about 10% over the month to around $102,000 at time of writing. Figures from CoinGecko show the broader digital-asset market fell 2.3%, trimming total capitalisation to $3.64 trillion.
The modest pullback still managed to wipe out over $1.16 billion in leveraged long positions on November 3rd alone. Analysts said the liquidations indicated a sharp unwinding of speculative leverage rather than full-on panic. Even in an era when institutions have embraced Bitcoin ETFs, crypto markets remain prone to violent swings.
The reversal came against a tangled backdrop of macroeconomic and political shifts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave markets a lift by signalling the end of quantitative tightening and the likelihood of rate cuts. He then sent sentiment crashing days later by warning that a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion.” Risk assets recoiled on the comment.
Bitcoin's U.S.-session returns swung from a perky 0.9% daily gain in late October to a 4.5% loss a week later, according to Velo Data. The pivot coincided with a bout of geopolitical relief: a Trump-Xi truce that put the trade war back on ice and suspended threatened 100% tariffs. The ceasefire eased tensions but also removed one source of speculative hedging that had buoyed digital assets earlier in the year.
The disappointment was as much psychological as financial. For years October has been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, earning its seasonal nickname. The reversal followed an early-month surge to an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6th. By month's end, prices had slid 13%. Traders had expected the familiar autumn rally, only to be hit by a cocktail of hawkish Fed rhetoric, a faltering global liquidity backdrop and new worries over trade policy.
When the Fed chief cooled talk of imminent easing, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $106,000. Earlier, President Trump's decision to re-escalate tariffs on Chinese imports had rattled investors, prompting a $19 billion “flash crash” liquidation across crypto derivatives, most of them long bets.
Even the new breed of regulated Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds, once heralded as a stabilizing force, joined the retreat. American spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered $946 million of outflows last week, led by BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, which lost roughly $400 million.
In total, funds tracking digital assets shed $360 million, according to CoinShares. The report blamed a “hawkish tone” from the Fed and a lack of fresh economic data, thanks to a 33-day government shutdown that has held-up key economic prints. The vacuum left investors “in a state of limbo”, unsure whether to price in rate relief or renewed tightening.
Yet the picture was not uniformly bleak. European and Australian Bitcoin funds saw small net inflows, hinting at regional divergence. German and Swiss issuers together attracted more than $30 million, while Canada and Australia added about $15 million between them.
A curious bright spot came from a rival network. Solana-linked ETFs drew $421 million in inflows last week, buoyed by the launch of the Bitwise Solana ETF and the Rex-Osprey Solana Staking ETF on Nasdaq. Both funds reached $100 million in assets within a fortnight, which is impressive by crypto-fund standards.
But behind the market's jitters lies a muddled economic picture. America's jobless rate remains near 4.3%, the highest in four years, while consumer prices are still rising at an annual pace of 3%, holding just above the Fed's 2% target. With the government shuttered, official data have gone dark, leaving investors to parse partial indicators such as the Conference Board's Expectations Index, which remains stuck below levels consistent with growth.
This uncertainty has drained momentum from speculative assets. Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities has ticked up again, suggesting that traders view it less as “digital gold” and more as a high-beta proxy for risk appetite.
Yet many analysts argue that October's stumble may prove constructive. SynFutures, a decentralised exchange, calls such corrections “the midpoint of a broader cycle rather than the end”. The firm expects Bitcoin to trade sideways in early November before “a decisive shift in tone” revives the rally.
History lends some support to this view. Bitcoin's average third-quarter return remains a healthy 6%, and November has often been kind: over the past 12 years, it has delivered mean gains of 42%. If that pattern holds, and if BTC's post-halving dynamics continue to play out, a move toward $120,000–$150,000 by late 2025 “remains within reach”, according to SynFutures.
On-chain metrics offer comfort as well since long-term holders have shown little inclination to sell, and ETF inflows, though volatile, continue to channel institutional money into the ecosystem. Structural demand appears intact even as speculative leverage resets.
Bitcoin's recurring boom-and-bust rhythm often mirrors the broader economy's shifting tides of liquidity. Each tightening cycle brings pain while each easing cycle revives dynamism and risk-on sentiment. The difference this time is that crypto is more entwined with mainstream finance than ever.
The growth of ETFs, custodial services and derivatives has made the market more TradFi-friendly, tempering some of its wildness but also exposing it more directly to central-bank policy.
So what next? More consolidation seems likely. After a year of record highs and regulatory breakthroughs, markets appear to be digesting their own enthusiasm. The “Uptober” myth may have been punctured, but faith in the longer arc of Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact.
For now, Bitcoin seems on-track to do what it so often does after a parabolic rise: pause, catch its breath, and remind believers that volatility is not a bug of the system, it is the system.
