Published: October 29th, 2025
Bitcoin traders appear to be breathing easier after weeks of turbulence triggered by another volley in America's tariff war with China. Amid signs that hostilities may be cooling, traders are tiptoeing back. Data from CoinGecko shows Bitcoin has recovered modestly, climbing 3.5% over the past week to hover just below $115,000 at time of writing. The optimism, however, remains fragile.
Crypto markets convulsed on October 10th when President Donald Trump threatened to slap a 100% tariff on Chinese imports. Within hours, open interest worth some $19 billion was liquidated in what analysts dubbed the “flash crash”. Bitcoin's price plunged alongside equities and commodities, underscoring how tightly digital markets now shadow macroeconomic sentiment.
Now, talk of a detente is replacing the sabre rattling of the past two weeks. Against that backdrop, a note from Standard Chartered's forex strategy unit is urging investors to watch exchange-traded-fund (ETF) activity for signals. Roughly $2 billion flowed out of gold ETFs last week, an exodus that may suggest renewed risk-on sentiment.
“It would be confirmation of a more positive Bitcoin backdrop if we had half of that re-enter Bitcoin ETFs Mon-Wed this week,” the bank's forex analysts noted. So far, Bitcoin's ETF inflows have lagged behind gold's, though some “catch-up”, as they put it, is overdue.
For all its technical sophistication, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to the mood swings of global macro. Gold's allure, by contrast, rests on centuries of habit, and on the fact that it does not depend on internet connectivity or regulatory forbearance to hold value.
In December 2024, as large investors adjusted portfolios ahead of year-end, Bitcoin's price spiked and propelled its gold ratio to record highs. The number of gold ounces one Bitcoin could buy jumped from 36.6 to 37.3, a ratio last seen at the height of crypto's previous bull run in November 2021.
An analysis by Coinglass, a data analytics firm, said the milestone signalled “that traditional finance continues to see Bitcoin as a mature asset class”. The rise, it noted, reflected not only Bitcoin's price strength but also steady inflows into newly launched ETFs. “BTC is increasingly seen as a necessary component of modern balanced portfolios,” the report said. A sentiment once confined to crypto enthusiasts had made the leap to the boardroom.
The calculation is simple enough, but the symbolism looms larger. Coinglass argued that the trend “cements Bitcoin's role as a sort of digital gold” but not without caveats: investors still tend to retreat to the physical metal during bouts of uncertainty.
That reflex may soften over time as Bitcoin's volatility has begun to mirror that of mainstream markets, a by-product of its institutionalisation following the SEC's approval of ETFs this year.
The Bitcoin-Gold correlation pattern has become a kind of barometer of the cryptocurrency's claim to be a store of value. When the two move in tandem, investors are effectively treating Bitcoin as a hedge rather than a gamble.
The last big move towards Bitcoin came late in 2022 when analysts at Bank of America Securities captured a novel convergence pattern. Bitcoin's price, they said, had tracked gold's for an extended period. The pattern, they argued, showed that investors were deploying it as a partial shield against macroeconomic turmoil.
To qualify as a genuine “safe haven”, an asset must insulate portfolios from steep losses in downturns, typically by being uncorrelated or negatively correlated with broader markets. Gold has long fulfilled that role. Bitcoin, once too volatile to qualify, has been creeping closer.
Between June 2021 and March 2022 the pair moved broadly in parallel. The correlation briefly turned negative in April 2022 before snapping back to positive by August. By October that year it tightened further, hitting a 12-month high.
During the same period Bitcoin's relationship with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also peaked. Then, as BofA's analysts noted, it began to fade. “A slowing positive correlation with blue-chip stocks and a quickly rising correlation with gold tells us investors have started looking at Bitcoin as a relative safe haven to shield portfolios from macro uncertainty,” the bank wrote.
By late October 2022, Bitcoin's 20-day volatility had fallen below that of both indices for the first time since 2020, a statistical curiosity that nonetheless suggested a maturing market. Its price had held steady since September even as the Nasdaq and S&P each dropped about 11%.
That steadiness did not last. When inflation once again surged to a four-decade high, Bitcoin and equities tumbled together. The episode reaffirmed that Bitcoin's temperament, while improving, remains closer to Silicon Valley than to the Swiss National Bank's vaults.
Fast-forward to this autumn and the same tension endures. Bitcoin's rise over the past week owes partly to gold's retreat from its own record high above $4,300 per ounce, a correction that has narrowed the performance gap. Gold is still up 54% this year, Bitcoin just 23%. Yet the ratio's new peak suggests that confidence in the digital version is hardening, especially among institutional investors looking beyond the next quarter's headlines.
Even so, traders will remain on high alert to geopolitical developments. The upcoming trade summit between Mr Trump and President Xi Jinping has given sentiment a boost on rekindled hopes of a tariff truce. But as history shows, one hawkish remark can reverse it overnight. Bitcoin's newfound calm may therefore be less a turning point than a pause for breath.
The bigger question is whether Bitcoin can truly rival gold's haven status. ETFs and institutional adoption have helped polish its image, but the asset's behaviour still depends heavily on liquidity cycles and risk appetite. Its strength, paradoxically, now lies in its correlation with everything else.
For now, traders will take what they can get. After the chaos of October 10th, a few days of serenity may feel like progress.
