Published: February 18th, 2026
Bitcoin's extended slump deepened this month as HODLers began to lose their nerve. The top cryptocurrency fell as low as $62,800 on February 6, a drop that analytics firm Glassnode said imposed pressure on veteran holders comparable to the shock of the LUNA collapse in May 2022. Such strain, the firm noted, marks a “rare shift in conviction typically seen in deeper stages of bear markets.”
The 7-day exponential moving average of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), a measure of whether older coins are being spent at a profit or loss, has slipped below 1. In plain terms, seasoned investors are now locking in losses. Historically, this group has provided the market's last line of defence, absorbing volatility and helping to form cycle bottoms. When they begin to sell underwater, traders naturally ask: where is the next floor?
Glassnode points to $55,000 as the next significant support should $65,000 fail to hold. Prediction markets and derivatives desks are increasingly entertaining that possibility.
Long-term holders, typically defined as investors who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days, have earned a reputation for stoicism. Their coins are less likely to move in moments of panic. In prior downturns, such as 2018 and 2022, their eventual surrender marked late-stage stress and coincided with wealth transfers from weak to strong hands.
This week's data hint at a similar dynamic. The dip on February 6th jolted conviction but didn't kick off a disorderly unwind. Still, the fact that long-term holder SOPR has dipped below 1 is notable. It suggests that even patient capital is no longer insulated from pain.
If that support erodes decisively, $54,000 looms as a psychological and technical waypoint. Markets, as ever, will test it.
The broader economic backdrop offers scant comfort. America added 130,000 jobs in January, enough to temper expectations of imminent monetary easing. Inflation slowed to 2.4%, but the softer print failed to spark a relief rally in risk assets, including crypto.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets still assign roughly a 90% probability that the Federal Funds Rate will remain unchanged in March. The message is clear: policy will not come to Bitcoin's rescue just yet.
Equity markets have also wobbled. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped amid renewed jitters in technology stocks after Microsoft shed around 10% despite reporting strong earnings. In commodities, volatility has returned with a vengeance: silver futures plunged sharply on January 30, marking their steepest one-day drop since 1980, while gold retreated from recent highs. Cross-asset tremors have reinforced a mood of caution.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at $2.33trn, down 1.33% over the past 48 hours. Bitcoin was trading around $67,700 at time of writing, down 1.68% since Monday 16th February. If February closes in the red, it will mark five consecutive months of losses, the longest streak since mid-2018.
From October 2025's all-time high, Bitcoin has fallen 52.4% over 123 days. The 2018 bear market's comparable stretch saw a 56.26% decline over 153 days. In percentage terms, this week's drawdown is uncomfortably close
Sentiment indicators reflect the strain. The Fear & Greed Index has edged up from 8 to 12 but remains mired in “extreme fear.” On Polymarket, traders now assign roughly 60% odds that Bitcoin will touch $55,000 before revisiting $84,000. When participants put money behind their pessimism, it carries weight.
Not all desks are bracing for a breakdown. Analysts at derivatives firm FalconX argue that $60,000 may yet hold as a near-term floor. They cite “healthy buying flows” and what they describe as a “massive wall of buyers” absorbing the capitulation of short-term holders.
The recent slide, they say, has looked more like an orderly deleveraging than a systemic failure. Unlike the collapse of FTX in 2022, there has been no singular institutional blow-up or cascading insolvency. Excess speculative capital has rotated out, but infrastructure remains intact.
Liquidation data throw up a mixed picture. Forced liquidations in derivatives markets have continued to buffet prices, yet since January 12 there has not been a single day when bearish liquidations exceeded bullish ones, according to industry data. In other words, longs have borne the brunt.
Whether this constitutes healthy cleansing or the start of more weakness depends largely on conviction, an intangible trading signal that on-chain metrics try to quantify.
Technical indicators add little warmth. Figures from Coingecko show Bitcoin is trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA200), itself beneath the 50-day average (EMA50). In trend analysis, such alignment typically signals entrenched bearish momentum, with moving averages acting as dynamic resistance.
Momentum gauges tell a similar story. The Relative Strength Index sits at 34.7, firmly in bearish territory though not yet at extreme oversold levels. That leaves room for further downside before a technical bounce becomes statistically tempting.
The Average Directional Index stands at 56.4, well above the 25 threshold that denotes a strong trend. Combined with falling prices, it confirms that the prevailing trend is not only down but forceful.
None of this precludes a short-term rally. Sharp declines often invite reflexive rebounds. Yet a bounce alone would not constitute a reversal. For that, Bitcoin would need to reclaim key moving averages and restore confidence among long-term holders, no small task in a market nursing fresh wounds.
Amid the turbulence, some asset managers argue that crypto markets are maturing rather than unravelling. In a recent note, WisdomTree suggested that digital assets have moved beyond their retail-led “boom-bust adolescence” into a phase characterised by portfolio discipline and institutional capital.
Infrastructure, the firm argues, is largely functional; regulation is tightening rather than retreating; and the debate has shifted from whether to own crypto to how to implement it responsibly.
That shift, subtle but decisive, may have changed crypto's rules of engagement.
