Published: October 1st, 2025
US approval for a Solana exchange-traded fund (ETF) could be just around the corner, as a change to Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) processes clears a path for new digital-asset funds.
In a post on X, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, declared the odds of approval “100%”.
The shift stems from a technical but consequential rule change. Until recently, the SEC reviewed crypto ETFs under a process known as “19b-4”. Each application triggered a statutory timeline, up to 240 days, at the end of which the regulator had to say yes or no.
But earlier this month, the agency adopted “generic listing standards”, which render the old clocks redundant. What remains are S-1 registration statements, documents vetted by the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance.
Solana's sponsors have already filed their fourth amendment to the paperwork, suggesting the only missing piece is a formal green light. “The baby could come any day,” Balchunas wrote.
Crypto ETFs are no longer curiosities. In January, spot bitcoin ETFs launched after years of wrangling, drawing in $12bn in net flows within ten weeks. That was a breakthrough moment for digital assets: the SEC, long sceptical, finally conceded that surveillance-sharing agreements with regulated exchanges could mitigate the risk of market manipulation.
Ethereum followed, though with less fanfare. Funds tracking the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value struggled at first, bleeding $523m before clawing back $3.6bn in inflows over the following quarter.
The choppier performance reflected both lingering investor caution and Ethereum's ambiguous status as a quasi-commodity, quasi-platform asset.
For now, Solana's market price shows little excitement. On September 30th it hovered at $211, scarcely changed on the day. Over the preceding week it had underperformed both bitcoin and Ethereum.
On September 24th alone, market-wide liquidations in Solana contracts topped $290m, according to CoinGlass, as traders unwound leveraged bets. Solana derivatives accounted for $31.6m of forced selling, compared with $52m for bitcoin and $68m for Ethereum.
Corporate purchases had offered some temporary buoyancy. Forward Industries, a Nasdaq-listed firm, raised $1.65bn in part to buy Solana. DeFi Development Corp, another public company, has been accumulating the coin since April. Yet markets had long since priced in the effect. When the purchases were formally disclosed, Solana's price slipped regardless.
ETF enthusiasm is not confined to serious protocols. Earlier this month, investors welcomed the launch of DOJE, the first ETF tracking Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency created as a joke. To the surprise of many, trading volumes surpassed $6m on the first day; more than double Balchunas' forecast. He later wrote that his estimate was “destroyed in the first hour”.
The Dogecoin fund is structured in a peculiar way. Registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, it holds spot assets through a Cayman Islands subsidiary, rather than under the more common Securities Act of 1933.
That distinction is notable because the SEC has so far allowed only a handful of 1940 Act crypto vehicles, while rejecting most 1933 Act proposals. Analysts now expect the regulator to relent: applications from Grayscale and Bitwise, two heavyweights of crypto asset management, face deadlines in mid-October and are viewed as near-certainties for approval.
Dogecoin's rally has also been fuelled by unexpected corporate accumulation. CleanCore Solutions, a disinfectant manufacturer, has declared itself the steward of the first “official” Dogecoin treasury in partnership with the Dogecoin Foundation. It recently added 100m DOGE, bringing its stash to 600m coins worth $170m. Its ambition is grander still: to hoard 5% of total supply, or $2.1bn at today's prices.
Behind the headlines lies a more complex picture of investor behaviour. According to CoinShares, a digital-asset manager, global crypto investment funds saw $812m in net outflows last week. Bitcoin accounted for $719m of those withdrawals, and Ethereum $409m. Yet other assets absorbed fresh money. Solana funds drew $291m in new inflows, XRP $93m, and smaller sums trickled into Sui and Cardano vehicles.
The timing was awkward for the bulls. Revised American GDP data and durable-goods orders both came in stronger than expected, prompting traders to dial back bets on interest-rate cuts. Rising yields usually spell trouble for speculative assets. Yet Solana and XRP bucked the trend, suggesting a measure of rotation among investors weary of the two dominant coins.
The SEC's approach to crypto ETFs has shifted from outright hostility to grudging accommodation. Legal defeats — most notably a federal court's rebuke of its arbitrary rejection of Grayscale's bitcoin application — forced the agency to relent. Since then, it has sought to impose consistency: if one crypto asset can win approval under certain surveillance and custody arrangements, others should too.
That logic explains why Solana's prospects look so strong. Once the technicalities of the S-1 are cleared, it is hard to see the SEC inventing new grounds for rejection. The agency remains cautious; it continues to warn about fraud and manipulation in the broader market.
But it also recognises that demand exists, and that driving investors offshore to unregulated markets is worse than channelling them into supervised funds.
None of this guarantees Solana a smooth ride. The blockchain has been dogged by outages and questions about centralisation. Its cheerleaders trumpet speed and scalability, but those qualities come with trade-offs in security and decentralisation, issues that matter to risk managers in large institutions. Moreover, its fate is tied to the broader crypto cycle. If Bitcoin and Ethereum sag, Solana will struggle to defy gravity.
Still, symbolism matters. The arrival of a Solana ETF would signal that America's financial regulators now see digital assets not as pariahs but as products to be tamed. The first wave of bitcoin funds unlocked new capital and lent legitimacy to an industry once associated mainly with speculation and scams.
Each subsequent approval chips away at scepticism and draws crypto deeper into the architecture of mainstream finance.
