Published: October 15th, 2025
The trade war, with the constructive domestic data signals, suggests that investors should keep a close eye on the economic calendar. The positive bank earnings and the Fed's signal on the October rate cut signal support to equities. Overall, the global market sentiment remains fragile, where the sanction in South Korea signals volatility.
The dovish outlook could ease some pressure from the trade tension, as the US has imposed tariffs and sanctions this year.
The Trump administration is also preparing for a protracted government shutdown. The White House budget office is moving quickly to secure funds for law enforcement and military personnel, and this week is expected to see the unveiling of a list of federal programs slated for budget cuts.
Let's see the complete outlook of S&P 500 from the SPX technical analysis:
In the daily chart of the SPX, the recent price showed a strong dip, followed by increased volatility arising from trade talks. As the overall market momentum remains bullish, a long opportunity might emerge once a bottom is established.
In the higher timeframe, the ongoing bullish pressure remains solid, as the price has sustained an upward wave for more than five months. Although a minor downside correction is visible in the weekly timeframe, it is not strong enough to indicate a trend reversal.
According to the volume structure, no significant high-volume line is visible above the current price. However, the gap between the current price and the nearest high-volume line signals a potential downside correction.
In the daily chart, the 200-day simple moving average lies below the current price, acting as a major support. Meanwhile, the 50-day exponential moving average is closer to the current price and serves as immediate support. As long as the price remains above these crucial dynamic levels, the primary outlook for this instrument stays bullish with an anticipated continuation.
In the secondary indicator window, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded below the 50.00 neutral line, signaling a possible top formation in the main price. However, the RSI may still move down and test the 30.00 level before any potential bullish reversal.
Based on the current market structure, the S&P 500 is more likely to maintain the existing trend, offering a potential continuation opportunity. In this case, a bullish outlook above the 50-day EMA support could open a long opportunity targeting the 6,800.00 resistance.
On the other hand, the gap between the current price and the 200-day SMA indicates room for a possible correction. In that case, a failure to hold the price above the 6,500.00 level could lead to a short-term opportunity targeting the 6,000.00 area.
In the H4 timeframe, the recent price is trading bullish, where the immediate support is located at the Ichimoku Kumo Cloud area. However, the Future cloud looks corrective, where both lines are closer together.
In the secondary indicator window, the MACD Histogram aimed higher and reached the neutral area, while the Signal line was hovering in the positive zone.
Based on this outlook, investors should monitor how the price reacts in the Kumo Cloud area. In that case, a downside recovery with a stable price below the 6500.00 line could be a bearish opportunity, aiming for the 6200.00 level.
In the intraday chart, the SPX is trading within a volatile market structure where the current price is trading within the Exponential Moving Average wave. Moreover, the intraday high volume line is above the current price, working as a crucial resistance.
In the secondary indicator window, the Traders Dynamic Index (TDI) hovers at the 50.00 neutral line, which signals a possible corrective momentum.
Based on the outlook, a bullish continuation needs to overcome the 6680.00 level before anticipating the 6800.00 area.
On the other hand, the immediate support is located at the 6551.45 level, which could be a crucial barrier to sellers. A bearish hourly candle below this line could be a potential short opportunity, targeting the 6400.00 area.
Based on the overall market structure, the SPX is trading within a bullish trend, where a minor intraday downside correction is possible.
Investors should closely monitor how the price retraces lower as a valid bottom formation with a strong bullish recovery might resume the existing trend soon.
