Published: October 28th, 2025
After the market closes on October 29, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) will disclose its annual first-quarter 2026 results. With revenue of about $73.4 billion, analysts predict an EPS of $3.67, which reflects the continued strength of cloud and AI usage.
Due to investors' confidence that Microsoft remains at the forefront of the business AI transformation story, the stock has risen by almost 25% so far this year.
The business reported revenue growth of 18% to $76 billion in the most recent quarter, with Azure growth rising to 39% and Intelligent Cloud up 26%. This quarter, however, the topic of debate will be margins.
Last quarter, Microsoft's profit margin was 45%, helped by ongoing expense control. But as data centres continue to grow, management has cautioned that margins may become narrower. The focus will shift from Azure to early indications of AI monetisation with Copilot in Office 365, Dynamics, and GitHub, which may demonstrate how effectively Microsoft is translating enthusiasm into steady income.
One of Microsoft's greatest advantages is still its free cash flow. Last quarter, the company's FCF came to around $26 billion, and it is still returning a sizable amount of capital through buybacks and dividends. Compared with fiscal 2025, management anticipates reducing capital spending in fiscal 2026.
Let's see the complete price outlook from the MSFT price analysis:
The daily chart of Microsoft stock (MSFT) shows that the broader market outlook remains bullish, as the price has been rising for a long period. Although the price recently dipped, it has formed a bottom, suggesting a possible continuation of the trend. In this context, the primary objective would be to look for bullish continuation opportunities until a strong exhaustion signal appears at the top.
In terms of volume, a bullish reaccumulation phase is visible in the near-term price action. Given that the ongoing price structure remains bullish within a valid trend, a stable continuation is possible. The most active level since December 2024 is around 506.90, which lies below the current price and within the consolidation area. As long as the current momentum sustains above this level, the bullish outlook remains valid.
On the daily chart, the price has recently bounced from the mid-Bollinger Band line and is now testing the upper Bollinger Band resistance. Meanwhile, the 200-day SMA remains below the current price and continues to slope upward, indicating a strong presence of long-term buyers.
In the indicator window, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also reflects a bullish bias as the line is moving upward from the 50.00 neutral level.
Based on the overall market structure, a minor downside correction could be expected as the price faces resistance near the upper Bollinger Band. However, a bullish continuation remains highly probable as long as the price maintains momentum above the 500.00 psychological level.
On the bullish side, the immediate target area lies around 555.45, with potential to extend further toward the 594.27 Fibonacci Extension level.
On the bearish side, a failure to hold above the 500.00 psychological line could trigger additional downside pressure. In that case, a valid weekly close below the 500.00 level may open the path toward the 446.37 key support level.
On the four-hour timeframe, Microsoft stock (MSFT) is trading higher following a valid bullish cloud breakout. Although the future cloud indicates a possible short-term correction, the overall price action remains strong on the buyers' side.
In the secondary indicator window, the MACD histogram has remained bullish for a considerable time, while the signal line is rising, confirming a bullish crossover. This reflects active buying pressure in the market, with no clear sign of a top formation yet.
Based on the four-hour market outlook, a bullish continuation is likely, especially if a four-hour candle closes above 530.00, potentially driving the price toward the 555.75 resistance level.
On the other hand, a failure to sustain momentum above the cloud area could pose a challenge for buyers. In that case, a valid bearish breakout followed by consolidation may extend the selling pressure toward the 440.00 psychological level.
In the hourly timeframe, the price shows a bullish rebound from the 507.39 support level, creating a new high above the 531.00 area. The bullish continuation is supported by the rising EMA wave and today's high-volume line. As long as the price remains above this crucial dynamic line, we may expect further upward pressure in the coming sessions.
In the secondary indicator window, the Traders Dynamic Index (TDI) is showing strong buying pressure, as the current line is hovering above the 50.00 neutral level. Although the TDI line has reached the upper zone, no significant rebound has been observed, which signals a potential continuation to the upside.
Based on this market outlook, investors should closely monitor how the price reacts at the current trading area, as it is now hovering around the intraday premium zone. Any minor downside correction towards the 522.96 level could increase the bullish probability, targeting the 540.00 and even 550.00 areas depending on price action.
However, a failure to hold the momentum above the 514.36 level could be challenging for buyers, as the price might seek support around the 507.39 level before possibly moving below the 500.00 area.
Based on the broader market outlook, Microsoft stock is trading bullishly, with no sign of selling pressure at the top. A bullish continuation is highly likely, as the recent recovery from the bottom formation increases the possibility of a new multi-year high.
Investors should closely monitor the upcoming earnings report, as any upward revenue surprise could further boost buying pressure in the market.
