Bitcoin on a Roll, Stays Above 10,000 USD for the Longest Stretch Since Launch

Bitcoin on a Roll, Stays Above 10,000 USD for the Longest Stretch Since Launch

Published: October 4th, 2020

Bitcoin posted its longest consecutive run above $10,000 this week, ending Monday at $10,721 and cementing 63 days of valuations at $10k or more, its longest since 2017.

BTCs last long stretch at $10,000-plus hit 62 days in 2017. A second run in 2019 looked like it could challenge but fizzled after 28 days. Bitcoin’s latest run continues unabated, and analysts think it could go all the way to New Year's Eve.

A poll by Bitcoin and crypto analyst Chris Burniske shows cryptocurrency investors think BTC will finish the year above $10,000.

According to the poll, Just 11 per cent of 1,300 respondents believe Bitcoin will end 2020 under $10,000. Other’s though the coin could hit as high as $17,000 or more.

Senior Bloomberg commodity analyst Mike McGlone is even more optimistic, writing this week that BTC could be on track to hit $20,000 at year-end. He notes the block reward as a significant factor.

‘Bitcoin is mirroring the 2016 patter that saw it go back to its previous peak. That corresponds to the last time supply of BTC was halved, and the third year after an earlier valuation.

‘In our view, if we fast forward four years and the 2016 trend repeats, Bitcoin could well touch close to a record high of about $20,000 this year.

Tracking an amazing run

On Monday Bitcoin had spent 63 days opening and closing each trading day at a price above $10,000. Starting from 28th July 2020. While it may have briefly slid under $10,000 inside a given trading day, it stayed above $10,000 at every open and close.

And 10k has only been a baseline. BTC’s price has broken above the $12,000 mark during the run. Stats from crypto tracker CoinMarketCap show it touched $12,350 on 17th August. Interestingly that was also the say when David Portnoy of Barstool Sports made his much-publicised comments about crypto being a virtual playground, where investors can ‘pump and dump all day long.’

Bitcoins brief drops below the $10,000 mark bottomed out at $9,911 on 7th September. While it didn’t last long, the dip represented a sudden 20 per cent drop in Bitcoin’s price.

But even that blip means Bitcoin’s fluctuations have been more stable this time ‘round. On Bitcoin’s previous runs, price volatility saw it move by as much as 53 per cent in one day.

The previous 62-day run began on 1st December 2017 and ended 31st January 2018. It was in this period that BTC hit its highest ever price: $20,088.

Analyst comment keeps BTC afloat

While Bitcoin is still well below its 2017 peak of $20,000, the extended run shows that it's achieved a new level of mainstream investor appeal.

The interest it's attracting from institutional investors is critical. Influential MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor’s recent comments about Bitcoin being “digital gold” is continuing to impact markets. He said that BTC is now a dependable store of value ‘… and an asset with more long-term potential for appreciation than holding cash,’ which has been widely quoted and referenced by analysts ever since.

Bitcoin may also be benefiting from the mainstreaming of crypto in recent months. The latest move by American regulators to let US banks back stablecoins is a huge step forward in terms of recognising crypto’s legitimacy.

Pulling ahead of the competition, again

Earlier this year Bitcoin seemed to be facing stiff competition from Tether, which overtook BTC as the planet’s most popular form of crypto in July.

Data from CoinMarketCap has had Tether posting some of the highest monthly and daily trading volumes this year. Tether's market cap is still tiny compared to Bitcoin’s. But it’s on the rise. Its volume first pushed past BTC in May 2019, and it consistently exceeded it ever since.

Will Tether’s monthly trading volume continue to overtake Bitcoin? If so, it will continue to be a contender for most popular coin in the crypto market. Based on market cap, it's first-place standing amongst stablecoins seems assured.

But even facing stiff competition, Bitcoin still looks unstoppable. Even as Tether was firing shots across the bow, the number of Bitcoin ATM installations around the globe grew exponentially YoY.

Rising Bitcoin prices have renewed interest in the crypto ATM market, due to more people looking for easy ways to obtain digital assets.

Statistics from Google have searches for 'crypto cash machines' have more than doubled over 2019. Numbers from Coin ATM Radar showed a 70 per cent increase in new crypto bank machines since Spring of 2019. In the first three months of 2020 there were over 1,200 new Bitcoin ATM go-lives.

In the past, it would have taken four years or longer for the industry to hit 2,000 installations. At the beginning of 2017 there were just 950 Bitcoin ATMs in operation globally.

Did the HODLers call it right?

Bitcoin has been above $10,000 for even longer than its record-setting 2017-18 run, giving confidence to long-term HODLers in the process.

The question for traders and analysts now is, what makes this run different? Have investors in the crypto space become more sophisticated, and better able to see the long-term value of digital currencies than they were in 2017 and early 2018?

If so, it means the trading environment for digital assets and crypto projects looking for funding will likely benefit from more mature and sustained investor interest.

Maturation in the wider crypto ecosystem could also be a factor. The influx of new capital to the DeFi ecosystem suggests Bitcoin and others are seeing knock-on benefits. Analysts point out that new capital in crypto markets always moves to Bitcoin first. So the extended run could be signalling the start of something bigger.

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